OPLAN 316/62 Cuba and World War III

My favourite 'What If' scenario has always been a war over the Cuban Missile Crisis. It's not as far fetched as some and provides some interesting possibilities for those interested in the pre-Vietnam era. While the war in Cuba might have been over relatively quickly, given the US forces committed to it, it is not impossible that the Soviets would have put pressure on the Berlin Corridor, which may also have resulted in a war in Europe. Fortunately in the real world cooler heads prevailed and crisis was averted... but what if...

Cuban Forces

MNR man a D-84 85mm AT Gun on the Malecón, 

Havana 1962 

The Cuban armed forces were still in the process of receiving and integrating Soviet equipment into their inventory in 1962. Much of the equipment was dated, although on a par with what other Warsaw Pact nations had in their forces. The bulk of their tank fleet was composed of the T34/85, although they also had IS2 and SU100 vehicles as well. BTR40 and BTR152 armoured personnel carriers had been ordered and delivered, although not in appreciable numbers. Air defences were largely quad 12.7mm DShK and quad 14.5mm KPV machine guns, for low level defence, with larger calibres for other ranges. 85mm and 100mm AT guns and the usual 75-82mm recoilless guns would have rounded out their anti-tank inventory. The Cuban Air Force (FAR) had begun to be equipped with the MiG17 fighter.

Cuban regular forces were unlikely to have been much opposition alone for the US, but it could also call on large numbers of Revolutionary Militia (MNR), who although only equipped with light weapons, would be likely to have been a thorn in the side of US forces, as were the Viet Cong a few short years later. The myth of an oppressed people yearning to be 'free' had been put to bed during the Bay of Pigs invasion and it is likely that they would have resisted a US invasion.

Soviet Forces

Soviet servicemen incognito, Santa Clara 1962. 

The US badly underestimated the Soviet strength on the island. They presumed there were three Soviet Motor Rifle Brigades, when there were in fact five. These had been drawn from the Leningrad Military District's divisions and were equipped with the latest front line Soviet kit. Open topped BTR 60 personnel carriers (possibly some BTR 50), T54 tanks and possibly ISU122 assault guns, are the likely items to be found. While the strategic missile forces had been located by the Americans, the Soviet battlefield nuclear capability hadn't. An extensive SAM umbrella had also been deployed, along with two squadrons of MiG 19 and MiG 21 fighters.

American Forces

The American invasion plan was to consist of an extensive set of air strikes against the known strategic missile sites. This was to be followed by days of aerial bombardment to destroy known unit positions, SAM and AAA batteries and any targets of opportunity. Almost the full range of then current US aircraft types were deployed to enable this and to provide air cover for the attackers. The air campaign was expected to last between eight and eighteen days.

The invasion itself was to be conducted by two corps of troops. XVIII Airborne Corps, composed of; 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, 1st Armoured Division and the 1st and 4th Infantry Divisions.  The II Marine Landing Force, composed of; 2nd Marine Division, 5th Marine Regimental Landing Team and the 2nd Infantry Division. The reserve unit for the landings was to be the 5th Infantry Division and a Brigade from the 2nd Armoured Division. With the exception of the Airborne, Marines and 1st Armoured Division, the other units hadn't converted to the ROAD type division and was still organised as 'Pentomic' Divisions, which may have caused some command and control problems for the US.

US Marines on manoeuvre in 1962, M1 rifles and M1919

machine guns in plain sight. 

The Airborne Divisions had been wholly equipped with the M14 rifle and M60 machine gun, by the time of the crisis, but other units would have had quantities of M1 rifles and carbines, along with BARs in some units. Photographs exist of troops deploying from M113 carriers in Germany in 1962, who are armed with M1 rifles, so an eclectic mix of troops would have been seen. The 1st Armoured would have had the M48 Patton tank and M113 carriers, but it is possible that M59 or M75 carriers may still have been in use. I understand that the tank battalions in the infantry divisions were still largely equipped with M47 Pattons. Most of the infantry is likely to have been leg infantry or truck bourne units.

The third American force was of course the US Base at Guantanamo Bay. This had been reinforced to nearly six thousand marines and armoured forces there included the M103 Heavy Tank. As the base itself was a disputed point with the Castro regime, it is likely that forces would have been earmarked to attack it if the Americans invaded.  

The Campaign

The American assault would have commenced with air drops by the 82nd and 101st, either side of Havana, on the two large air fields capable of receiving heavy transport aircraft. The Marines and the 1st Armoured, would themselves have landed on the coast, again either side of Havana and rushed to link up with the Airborne Divisions. Follow up landings by the Infantry Divisions would have resulted in the encirclement of Havana, followed by its taking.

Heavy air strikes would likely have resulted in the loss of the Soviets and regular Cuban divisions, once they had been located. This is likely to have followed limited counter attacks on US forces. The US troops had little in the way of NBC equipment for the landings and would have been vulnerable to chemical and nuclear attack if these had been deployed. Horrendous casualties would have been inflicted on the US forces, with the exception of those buttoned down in their Pattons and M113s.

Presuming this type of attack didn't take place, then it is likely that an extended guerilla war over the rest of the island would have taken place. The Americans planned to deploy National Guard units on the island following the invasion, but it is likely that continued resistance by regular remnants and MNR forces would have meant a mini-Vietnam for the US.

War in Europe?

The Centurion, second most common tank after the Pattons.

There had already been a stand off between NATO and the Warsaw Pact over Berlin, which had only de-escalated the year preceding the missile crisis.  This had resulted in a stand off between Russian and US tanks at Checkpoint Charlie at one point. It is entirely likely that in the event of the US attacking Cuba, the Soviets would attempt to close off the Berlin Corridor and occupy the Allied sectors of Berlin. This would result in war without any question. While much of Europe was equipped with US equipment, including M46 and M47 Pattons, M4 Shermans, along with M24 and M41 light tanks, there's also Britain to consider. The Centurion and Conqueror were the tanks, the FV432 and Saracen the APCs. The Saladin and Ferret were the mainstay of its light armoured types too!

Far from being the world ending nuclear apocalypse of the 80s, the nuclear weapons available were far fewer, so largely conventional actions would have been the order of the day. NATO possessed far more nuclear weapons and would only be likely to deploy them in a last ditch attempt to halt the Warsaw Pact forces. The Soviets were well aware of their nuclear inferiority, so would be only likely to deploy theirs as a response.

In all the period offers some interesting possibilities for conventional post-war actions. The Soviets have the numbers, but largely inferior equipment, while NATO has fewer forces and not all of it equipped with the best available. ATGWs are in their infancy and not widely available. Plus you would have Elvis returning to duty with 3rd Armoured Division as a reservist.. uh-uh.

32nd Armor's Scout Platoon puts one of its reservists through some refresher training.